Adobe: 2026 holiday online sales set to hit a record $275.1 billion
U.S. online holiday spending is heading for a record, up 6.7%; demand warms up early from October — but discount pressure is high too.
Adobe's 2026 holiday forecast projects U.S. online sales from November 1 to December 31 at a record $275.1 billion, up 6.7% year over year. The season starts early: October alone is expected to see $95.8 billion in online spending (up 8% YoY). Cyber Week — the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday — should drive $47.5 billion (up 7.4%), roughly 17.3% of the season total; the single biggest day remains Cyber Monday at about $15.1 billion, while Black Friday reaches $12.9 billion and grows faster (up 9.2%).
Spending is led by electronics ($63.3 billion) and apparel ($51.3 billion), while grocery, toys and cosmetics grow faster than the market overall. Mobile will carry 57.4% of online holiday spending. Another notable trend: AI-driven traffic to retail sites is rising 130%, with the biggest jump on Thanksgiving (up 159%), followed by Black Friday (up 95%) and Cyber Monday (up 88%). Adobe expects discounts of up to 30% during Cyber Week.
Demand may break records, but so does discount pressure: cuts of up to 30% squeeze a per-unit profit already thinned by peak fulfillment fees and surcharges. That makes it less about how much you sold and more about what's left after discount, commission, VAT and shipping. The double-digit growth in AI-driven traffic also turns machine-readable product data (title, price, image) into a competitive edge. In short, this season the winner is the seller who manages margin, not demand.